Fathead Blog

My confidence grows and grows making UFC predictions after another winning card (3-2) brings my overall record to 11-14. I have to keep the momentum going with UFC 146 this Saturday. A 4-1 card could finally get me to .500, but I’m shooting for my first perfect card. With that in mind, here are my UFC 146 card predictions:

Cain Velasquez and Antonio Silva should provide a great fight at UFC 146.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

This is the first fight in a while where I have actually heard of both fighters. Santos has an impressive 14-1 record, but Mir’s 16-5 is respectable as well. These two fighters have very different styles, with Mir looking for submissions, while Santos relies heavily on striking. I normally side with the strikers, but Mir has worked on his striking and could pose a problem with Santos, who I don’t think will be able to prevent the takedowns. I like Mir to take the main event.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

This breakdown was over before it even started. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva is far too good of a nickname not to get my selection in this fight. Silva is also the more experienced fighter, bringing a 16-3 record to the octagon. Velasquez has been very successful so far, however, and at 9-1, Bigfoot is no lock. Both of these fighters are well rounded and do a lot of things well. As I said in the beginning of the analysis, I am taking Bigfoot in this one.

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

The nicknames keep on coming. “Big Country” couldn’t be a more fitting nickname for Roy Nelson, who looks like he came in from the farm. Nelson is a misfit compared to most UFC fighters, who are incredibly fit guys, like his opponent Herman. Nelson sports his gut with pride and with a 17-7 record, he clearly is doing well for himself. Herman is 21-3 and a great striker, but he never stood a chance against Big Country in my book.

Stipe Miocic vs. Shane Del Rosario

The battle of the unbeatens! Miocic (8-0) and Del Reosario (11-0) will put their perfect records on the line Saturday in what should be an amazing fight. The only downside? No nicknames. If you can get past that aspect, they are two very different fighters. Del Rosario is a well rounded submission fighter, where Miocic is a striker. I am going with the experience and taking Del Rosario for the win.

Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson

Another great undercard fight, these guys also bring the nicknames. Stefan “Skyscarper” Struve is 6’11”, which to me seems like a huge disadvantage if you are taking on a takedowns fighter. Luckily for him, he isn’t. Lavar “Big” Johnson is a pure striker with very quick feet and knees. Interestingly enough, it is Struve who is the submissions fighter, and I just can’t wrap my head around how he fights. Big got me a win last card, so I will go with him again this time.

After starting out with a miserable record in picking UFC fights, I went 4-1 in my last picks and am 8-12 to date. That means I can get my record above .500 for the first time since I started writing UFC predictions with a perfect card this time. So with UFC on Fox happening this Saturday, I have to take a shot.

With his win over "Rampage" Jackson, Jon Jones got me closer to a winning record.

Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller

This is a tricky fight to pick. Miller has a great record (21-3), but is 2 inches shorter than his opponent and his reach is 5 inches shorter. That could be dangerous against a boxer like Diaz. Miller wants to make this a ground fight, but will he be able to get takedowns without taking significant shots? I have a lot of questions about it, but I think Miller finds a way to catch Diaz off guard and get the submission.

Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

Let the nickname fun begin! Josh “Kos” Koscheck’s nickname isn’t quite as catchy as Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks. Add to that Bigg Rigg’s record of 12-1, and Kos isn’t stacking up in my book. The fighting styles are nearly identical and both will try to score multiple takedowns. I like Bigg Rigg to bring home another win at the end of this fight.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher

Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares is a very difficult name to pronounce. Alan “The Talent” Belcher makes me think of an old school WWE heel. The Talent is 4 inches taller than his opponent, but it only give him 4 inches more on his reach. Look for him to use that to his advantage as a striker, keeping Toquinho at bay as he tries to get takedowns. The Talent needs to keep this fight off the mat, or it could get ugly. You knew I wasn’t going to pick against a guy with a nickname like The Talent, right?

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson

Lavar “Big” Johnson brings much more experience to the octagon with a 16-5 record. Pat “HD” Barry is only 7-4 and at 5’11” gives up a lot of height to his opponent. This is my kind of fight, as both fighters have one thing on their mind: standing and throwing. Both fighters are powerful strikers who are looking for a knockout blow. Big has dangerous feet and knees, and I think he will add to his already impressive resume.

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson gets a big push in my book for the nickname “The Menace”, while Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson is just ok. Both bring pretty solid records to the ring, with El Cucuy (14-2) having a slight edge on The Menace (11-6). This should be another fight where both guys look to make it more of a boxing match. Both can wrestle if the situation calls for it, but I think they would prefer to stay on their feet. I am taking Feguson and his record, even though I hate to go against The Menace.

Regardless of my 2-8 record picking UFC fights, I refuse to give up on my goal of havinga successful UFC predictions blog post. So after a month off, I am back to tackle yet another UFC card.  You may be thinking I waited for a card where I was more familiar with the fighters to give myself an edge. Quite the contrary, this isn’t even a PPV event, so the likely hood of my knowing these fighters is actually slimmer. I relish the challenge. Here is my 3^rd installment of uneducated UFC predictions.  

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva

As always, we start with the main event. Thiago Silva (14-2) and Alexander Gustafsson (13-1) both come into this fight with solid records. Gustafsson has a major size advantage, standing at 6’5” to Silva’s 6’1”, each weighing 205. I usually prefer to go with submission fighters like Gustafsson, but my gut is telling me to take Silva. He has a solid striking and submission combination and I think that will be the trick to take down Gustafsson.

Brian Stann vs. Alessio Sakara

I have never watched either of these fighters, but I am pretty sure this is going to be my type of fight. First, and quite possibly foremost, they have solid nicknames. Brian “All American” Stann is a bit used, but when you think of how it would be announced, it would sound pretty cool. Then you have Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara, which is simply great. The real reason I think it will be a great fight is these two are simply strikers. At 185 pounds each, fatigue shouldn’t be a factor, leaving us with a wild slugfest. I like Stann in this fight, because I think he packs a little more in his punches.

Paulo Thiago vs. Siyar Bahadurzada

This seems like the hardest fight to predict on this card. (Who am I kidding, I’m 2-8, there is no easy pick for me.) Looking at the statistics and information at hand, I don’t see anything that really sets either apart. Siyar “The Great” Bahadurzada has more fights under his belt, but he doesn’t excel in any one area. Paulo Thiago is a pretty good submission fighter, who can take punches, which he will need to be able to do against The Great. I am going with the more experienced fighter here and taking Bahadurzada to test Thiago’s chin early and often.

Dennis Siver vs. Diego Nunes

If this were a movie, Dennis Siver looks like he was cast to play the villain, and Diego Nunes looks like the young hero. Nunes is the greener opponent, having fought in 8 less fights than Siver, but he has only 2 less wins. Both fighters are around 145 pounds, but Siver just looks bigger. Siver will look to use that size and his striking ability to wear down Nunes, especially if he can take him to the ground. Nunes needs to keep this fight off the mat if he wants to win and make Siver move. I think Nunes finds a way to get the win.

Demarques Johnson vs. John Maguire

Demarques “Darkness” Johnson just looks like a fighter. John Maguire, not so much. Regardless of looks, Maguire is 17-3 and is dangerous when he takes you to the ground. Johnson wants to keep this fight upright, where he can use his length to his advantage. If it goes to the ground, however, it won’t be a lost cause for Johnson, who can hold his own in the submission category. I think Johnson takes this fight because I think he is more of a complete fighter and can win this fight no matter how it is fought.