June 21, 2012
With back-to-back 1-4 predictions, I am starting to lose faith in my UFC predicting abilities. I am now 13-22 and the writing may be on the wall that UFC predictions aren’t my strong suit. I will press on with this post and while I don’t like making this stipulation on a card that isn’t PPV, I think it must be done. If I do not have a winning card on this fight, I will be taking a long hiatus from making these predictions. I’m not saying they will be gone forever, but there will be a long hiatus. So with that, here are my predictions for UFC on FX.
Gray Maynard vs. Clay Guida
I hope I am still in contention for these picks to continue when the Main Event goes down. Clay Guida and Gray Maynard are almost exactly the same when it comes to strategy in the ring. Guida’s nickname, The Carpenter, is a little more original than Maynard’s (The Bully), so that scores him points in my book. The real reason I am taking Guida? He has a Fathead! How can I argue with that!
Sam Stout vs. Spencer Fisher
Sam Stout is almost strictly a striker and his nickname “Hands of Stone” lends itself to that style. Spencer Fisher has more experience than Stout, but the nickname “The King” is far less original. Fisher is a striker just like Stout, but is better balanced with his submissions. I am sticking to my nickname preference with this pick and picking Hands of Stone to win.
Brian Ebersole vs. TJ Walburger
Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole is a staggering 49-14-1 with 1 no contest. He makes Waldburger seem like a rookie with his 15-6 record. Ebersole is more looking to win via ground and pound and his wrestling background makes him an effective takedown fighter. He needs to be wary of Waldburger’s ability to trap him in a submission, but his experience should help him there. Ebersole needs to perform like the lock he seems to be if I am going to get my winning card. Give me Ebersole in a close one.
Ross Pearson vs. Cub Swanson
In my time writing these posts, I have picked on 3 things: Nicknames, Striking, and experience. Ross Pearson has the better nickname (The Real Deal), is a more dominant striker, and has fought only one less match. All of that being said, my mind is already made up that Cub Swanson will win this fight. I can’t tell you why, but I can tell you that I am going with Swanson.
Hatsu Hioki vs. Ricardo Lamas
This is where my strategies clash head on. I need to get the most wins I can possibly get on this card and it could come down to this prediction. Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas is a solid nickname, which I normally put a lot of weight in. However, Hioki is taller and also MUCH more experienced. With a 26-4-2 record compared to The Bully’s 11-2, I am going with my gut and taking Hioki for the win.
June 7, 2012
My wires must have been crossed last week. I said I needed my UFC 146 picks to be 4-1 last week to get to .500 in my predictions. However, I went 1-4 and am now a lowly 12-18. Maybe I was getting too cocky with the previous winning streak I went on. have had a bad record before, though, and my UFC predictions will continue with Friday’s UFC on FX.
Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall
This is the kind of main event I love to write about. Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson would seem to be a lock for me to pick with such a great nickname. Unfortunately for him, he has run into Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall. There may not be a better nickname in sports. Add on top of that the handlebar mustache McCall is sporting and I think I have my new favorite UFC fighter. Without looking at any fighting style information, I am taking McCall. Uncle Creepy can’t lose!
Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman
There is a big drop off with my excitement from the main event to this fight. Neither fighter sticks out to me in their descriptions, with Silva having no nickname and Brenneman using “The Spaniard”, which is a little dated. Silva is a pure striker, with dangerous kicking ability. Brenneman will look to bring this fight to the ground and wear out Silva with his wrestling. I am looking for Silva to catch Brenneman with a solid kick and take care of business.
Mike Pyle vs. Josh Neer
This fight has regained my interest. Mike “Quicksand” Pyle and Josh “The Dentist” Neer have brought some creativity with their nicknames, although I am confused a little by Neer’s. They are very similar fighters in the ring, with Pyle being a slightly more well-rounded. Neither fighter is afraid to take the fight to the mat, so this fight has equal chances of ending via knockout or submission. Either way, I think The Dentist will be the one celebrating when the fight is over.
Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen
Wineland doesn’t have a nickname, but does has a 3 inch size advantage over Jorgensen. Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen is a well-rounded fighter who can beat you in a myriad of ways. Jorgensen can be aggressive, which could get him in trouble with a dangerous striker like Wineland. Jorgensen could have a hard time getting inside the reach of Wineland, but I like his fighting style and I am taking Young Guns in this fight.
Mike Pierce vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha
These two guys look like they were born to fight. Pierce is 13-5 and the more experienced fighter. Rocha, while not experienced, is 9-1 in his fights and also 2 inches taller than Pierce. Combine those stats with his “Ta Danado” nickname and he is leading in my book. Pierce is a takedown, ground and pound style of fighter, while Rocha is looking for submissions. I like the brute force Pierce fights with, but I am taking Rocha in this fight.
May 25, 2012
My confidence grows and grows making UFC predictions after another winning card (3-2) brings my overall record to 11-14. I have to keep the momentum going with UFC 146 this Saturday. A 4-1 card could finally get me to .500, but I’m shooting for my first perfect card. With that in mind, here are my UFC 146 card predictions:
Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
This is the first fight in a while where I have actually heard of both fighters. Santos has an impressive 14-1 record, but Mir’s 16-5 is respectable as well. These two fighters have very different styles, with Mir looking for submissions, while Santos relies heavily on striking. I normally side with the strikers, but Mir has worked on his striking and could pose a problem with Santos, who I don’t think will be able to prevent the takedowns. I like Mir to take the main event.
Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
This breakdown was over before it even started. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva is far too good of a nickname not to get my selection in this fight. Silva is also the more experienced fighter, bringing a 16-3 record to the octagon. Velasquez has been very successful so far, however, and at 9-1, Bigfoot is no lock. Both of these fighters are well rounded and do a lot of things well. As I said in the beginning of the analysis, I am taking Bigfoot in this one.
Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
The nicknames keep on coming. “Big Country” couldn’t be a more fitting nickname for Roy Nelson, who looks like he came in from the farm. Nelson is a misfit compared to most UFC fighters, who are incredibly fit guys, like his opponent Herman. Nelson sports his gut with pride and with a 17-7 record, he clearly is doing well for himself. Herman is 21-3 and a great striker, but he never stood a chance against Big Country in my book.
Stipe Miocic vs. Shane Del Rosario
The battle of the unbeatens! Miocic (8-0) and Del Reosario (11-0) will put their perfect records on the line Saturday in what should be an amazing fight. The only downside? No nicknames. If you can get past that aspect, they are two very different fighters. Del Rosario is a well rounded submission fighter, where Miocic is a striker. I am going with the experience and taking Del Rosario for the win.
Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson
Another great undercard fight, these guys also bring the nicknames. Stefan “Skyscarper” Struve is 6’11”, which to me seems like a huge disadvantage if you are taking on a takedowns fighter. Luckily for him, he isn’t. Lavar “Big” Johnson is a pure striker with very quick feet and knees. Interestingly enough, it is Struve who is the submissions fighter, and I just can’t wrap my head around how he fights. Big got me a win last card, so I will go with him again this time.
May 2, 2012
After starting out with a miserable record in picking UFC fights, I went 4-1 in my last picks and am 8-12 to date. That means I can get my record above .500 for the first time since I started writing UFC predictions with a perfect card this time. So with UFC on Fox happening this Saturday, I have to take a shot.
Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller
This is a tricky fight to pick. Miller has a great record (21-3), but is 2 inches shorter than his opponent and his reach is 5 inches shorter. That could be dangerous against a boxer like Diaz. Miller wants to make this a ground fight, but will he be able to get takedowns without taking significant shots? I have a lot of questions about it, but I think Miller finds a way to catch Diaz off guard and get the submission.
Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks
Let the nickname fun begin! Josh “Kos” Koscheck’s nickname isn’t quite as catchy as Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks. Add to that Bigg Rigg’s record of 12-1, and Kos isn’t stacking up in my book. The fighting styles are nearly identical and both will try to score multiple takedowns. I like Bigg Rigg to bring home another win at the end of this fight.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher
Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares is a very difficult name to pronounce. Alan “The Talent” Belcher makes me think of an old school WWE heel. The Talent is 4 inches taller than his opponent, but it only give him 4 inches more on his reach. Look for him to use that to his advantage as a striker, keeping Toquinho at bay as he tries to get takedowns. The Talent needs to keep this fight off the mat, or it could get ugly. You knew I wasn’t going to pick against a guy with a nickname like The Talent, right?
Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson
Lavar “Big” Johnson brings much more experience to the octagon with a 16-5 record. Pat “HD” Barry is only 7-4 and at 5’11” gives up a lot of height to his opponent. This is my kind of fight, as both fighters have one thing on their mind: standing and throwing. Both fighters are powerful strikers who are looking for a knockout blow. Big has dangerous feet and knees, and I think he will add to his already impressive resume.
Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson
Michael Johnson gets a big push in my book for the nickname “The Menace”, while Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson is just ok. Both bring pretty solid records to the ring, with El Cucuy (14-2) having a slight edge on The Menace (11-6). This should be another fight where both guys look to make it more of a boxing match. Both can wrestle if the situation calls for it, but I think they would prefer to stay on their feet. I am taking Feguson and his record, even though I hate to go against The Menace.
April 20, 2012
Last week, I got back in the saddle on my UFC picks and can report I had my BEST DAY EVER! Now, that may only have been a 2-3 result, but that is double the amount of correct answers in any of my previous reports. Being as that wasn’t even a PPV event, I feel good things are on the horizon. With UFC 145 this Saturday, I am going for my first winning card ever. Here are my picks:
Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans
This is a must-see fight, even for the casual MMA fan such as me. Jon “Bones” Jones is fast becoming one of the biggest names in the UFC, skyrocketing up the ranks with his 15-1 record. He will face “Suga” Rashad Evans, long one of the UFC’s big names, his 17-1-1 record earning him that respect. This light-heavyweight fight has the potential to be explosive, but with both fighters liking to use takedowns and wrestling, it could have its slow points. Regardless, there will be some Heavyweight type blows thrown in this fight, and I think Jones wins it in the end.
This should be a great undercard. MacDonald (12-1) and Mills (14-4) both bring solid records into this fight. MacDonald is more of a takedowns fighter, but is fairly well-rounded in the cage. Mills, on the other hand, relies almost exclusively on his speed and dangerous striking ability to beat his opponents. MacDonald has some boxing in his background, but will he be able to handle the quick strikes from Mills? While Mills is more my kind of fighter, I am leaning towards MacDonald getting the win in this fight, so I will trust my gut. Even though it has betrayed me more often than not when it comes to UFC fights.
Brendan Schaub vs. Ben Rothwell
Now we get to a couple of heavyweights. Rothwell (31-8) has far more experience than Schaub (9-2), and he looks the part. Schaub looks far more like a fighter and that might help him have more gas in the tank the deeper this fight goes. Rothwell is a heavy hitter though, which may cut this fight short before cardio comes into play. Schaub is a striker who will try to keep this fight off the mat, where he could have trouble if Rothwell successfully executes his takedowns. I normally go for the younger fighter in this spot, so I am switching it up and taking Rothwell to get the win.
Miguel Angel Torres vs. Michael McDonald
Now, I just said that I was picking Rothwell to change my trend on picking the younger, less experienced fighters. Torres (39-4) and McDonald (14-1) should fall under the same category right? Wrong. You see I have already picked a MacDonald in Rory, so I can’t go against Michael McDonald in this fight, right? In all serious I am taking McDonald in this fight because of his solid defense and ability to adapt to his opponents. This fight could legitimately go either way though, as both fighters have KO ability at any time.
Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin
Eddie Yagin (15-5-1) has the edge in my books because as you know I am partial to nicknames. Eddie “The Filipino Phenom” Yagin is a pretty solid one. That being said, he has vastly different skills than Mark Hominick (20-10), whose nickname “The Machine” leaves a little to be desired. Regardless, Yagin is a submission fighter while Hominick is a striker. I went against Mills earlier even though he was a striker, but even with Yagin’s great nickname I can’t do it again. I like Hominick in this fight.