Fathead Blog

How good is Jeremy Lin? It’s safe to say that we don’t know yet and here’s the thing – we probably won’t for a while.

In case you’ve been living under a rock, Lin, in his second NBA season, is taking the league by storm. As a little-used guard with the Golden State Warriors, he signed with the Knicks this season and has been the dominant story in the sports landscape of New York over the past month. He’s not only been good offensively, but really good. And the kicker is that the slumping Knicks are finally showing some signs of life in the Eastern Conference. Add it all together and you’ve got a storyline eerily similar to Tim Tebow’s this past season in the NFL (Note: Linking Tim Tebow and Jeremy Lin in the same story may cause irreparable damage to internet search engines everywhere).

No one can argue with the fact that Lin has been a dominant offensive presence. He went for 20 points or more in seven of his past eight games heading into the weekend and had a coming out party of sorts in a win against the Lakers, dropping 38. Here’s the thing, though: the jury is still out on him.

Jeremy Lin's big game against the Lakers really kicked off "Linsanity".

While dominant at times, Lin has also endured some struggles in this recent hot streak. For one thing, he’s shown he’s not a great three-point shooter. Going into the weekend, he was shooting an abysmal 25% from long range. 40% for a guard is considered decent, 35% is modest, and 30% is bad. Even if you’re only a casual NBA fan, it’s clear to see that Lin has a lot of work to do in that department. And before you write off three-point shooting as only a small facet of the game, the problem is that as a guard, defenders will learn to back off and force him to shoot from the outside. He’s going to eventually need to hit an occasional three-pointer to keep defenses honest and stop them from playing far off the ball to avoid his penetration to the basket … which he excels at, by the way.

But even worse, is Lin’s ability to take care of the basketball. During that aforementioned eight-game stretch, Lin had at least six turnovers six times. Six times. He racked up eight against both Utah and Toronto and added nine more against the woeful Hornets. That’s unacceptable for any player, but even worse for a point guard whose primary duty is to run the offense. Lin has shown the ability to distribute the ball, averaging about nine assists in those eight contests, so he clearly has some skill running an offense. But committing that many turnovers is flat out costly and will eventually catch up to a team. We saw evidence of that in the game against New Orleans as the Knicks lost to one of the worst teams in the league.

In addition to those deficiencies, the other thing that should be taken into consideration is something I like to call the Karl Malone/Gary Payton syndrome. Both were still 20-point scorers when they teamed up in L.A. with the Mamba and Shaq for an experiment that ultimately failed. But as Lakers, their scoring averages dipped significantly. Not because they were bad players, but simply because there were fewer shots to go around. With the Knicks having been without Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudamire for parts of the Linsanity era, it will be interesting to see how his scoring is affected once all three are playing on the same court. As so many coaches have said, there’s only one basketball. While Lin isn’t likely to fall off the face of the earth, his scoring should take at least a slight hit.

Regardless of all of this, Lin is still a tremendous talent. Not only is he playing extremely well, but the Knicks are winning games. As long as the latter continues, the hype over Lin should and will continue.

The bizarre thing is that even after a fairly long NFL career, it’s difficult to gauge just how good he was. His 10,009 career yards rank 26^th all-time, yet he had only five career 1,000-yard seasons.  10,000 yards is an amazing accomplishment and made Williams a great rusher, but he will be remembered by most as someone who could have done even more.

In 2000, his second NFL season, Williams missed six games due to injury, but still finished with 1,000 yards. Then after racking up nearly 4,500 rushing yards over the next three years, Williams abruptly retired in 2004. He returned in 2005, but shared time with a young Ronnie Brown, and in 2006, he was suspended for the entire season for violating the NFL’s drug policy. Williams returned again in 2007, but playing in his first game, he was injured and missed the remainder of the season. Williams played in 2008 – 2010 without missing a game, but he again spilt time with the younger Brown. Last season, he served as a backup with the Baltimore Ravens behind star Ray Rice.

The Dolphins drafted Ronnie Brown to add stability and the "wildcat" to their running game.

When you add it all up, Williams missed about 3 ½ years of playing time. He averaged nearly 1,200 yards per season from 1999 – 2005, so factoring in that rate of production, Williams lost approximately 4,000 yards in all. When you add those yards to his career, a good picture is painted as to just how good he could have been.

With 14,000 career yards, he vaults all the way into fifth place on the all-time rushing list behind only Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, and Curtis Martin. Just as important, if Williams had been a steady force in the backfield, the Dolphins probably don’t draft Ronnie Brown. Instead of sharing the rushing duties in much of his career in Miami, Williams could have had the bulk of the carries to himself and accumulated even more yards as a feature back.

Now, while all this projecting is fun, the important thing to remember is that it certainly is no guarantee of what Williams would have accomplished. Even if he had been able to stay on the field, there’s still no telling how things would have played out.

The bottom line is that we’ll never know if Williams might have challenged Emmitt Smith’s NFL record of 18,355 yards. But if things had turned out a little better, he may have given it a shot – and Mike Ditka would have had the last laugh.

With the 2011 NFL season officially over, it’s time to wallow in our misery take a look back at the year. When you think of the top stories from this season, it’s easy to see that this was the year of the quarterback. Comparing players over eras is always a losing battle, but this season proved one thing – this is the most talent-rich time for quarterbacks in the league since the late 1980s when some guys named Joe Montana, Dan Marino, and John Elway were in their prime.

We may even look back someday and, gasp, think this crop was even better. Right now, the NFL has a slew of elite quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning (if he’s able to come back, that is). Then there are guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Michael Vick, Tony Romo, and Philip Rivers, who I’d slot below them. And there are also young guns that look like the next generation: Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, and even Tim Tebow, to name a few. The bottom line is that this is one of the best eras in the history of the game for passers.

Matthew Stafford could find himself rising up the quarterback rankings as quickly as he has the Lions improving.

Here are some of the key things I’ll remember from this season about the quarterbacks.

Tebow Time – If there’s one thing I’ll remember from this football season in general, it’s probably the way Tim Tebow was a lightning rod for both praise and criticism. I’m hard pressed to remember a football player that was as young as Tebow that was so polarizing. There are better quarterbacks to be sure, but the turnaround experienced by the Broncos was impossible to ignore. And the fact that he was able to not only get Denver to the playoffs, but help them win a game once they got there will only grow the legend. His success this season should buy him at least a little leeway next year if he starts slowly.

The Year of the Pass – So let me get this straight. Dan Marino’s record of 5,084 passing yards stood for nearly 30 years, but in 2012 it was broken by Drew Brees? And Tom Brady? And almost Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning? The fact that a record that lasted this long was broken by two players and approached by two others should tell you everything you need to know about the NFL these days – it’s a passing league … maybe more than it’s ever been.

Peyton’s Injury – It can be difficult to gauge just how valuable a player is until an injury, but we got a glimpse of that this year. How important is Manning to the Colts? The NFL’s new magazine, aptly named NFL Magazine, went as far as declaring him their 2011 Most Valuable Player … despite the fact that he didn’t take a snap all season. Personally, I think that’s going a bit far since by doing that, the magazine snubbed a lot of deserving players. But point taken.

Alex Smith Takes Strides – Smith, like Tebow, isn’t an elite quarterback. But after struggling mightily since he was drafted in 2005, he had a career year and was a few special teams gaffes from playing in the Super Bowl. It wasn’t the 3,000+ yards or the 60% completion rate that was all that impressive since he’s approached those numbers before. The reason Smith turned into a serviceable quarterback this year was because he limited his mistakes, throwing only five interceptions all season. Smith may never reach elite status, but if he’s able to continue playing at this same pace, the 49ers should be competitive for several years to come.

These Guys Can Play – It’s often said that it takes a while for rookie quarterbacks to find their footing. While that’s true most of the time, we saw a few first-year players look like seasoned veterans in 2011. Cam Newton had arguably the best rookie year ever for a quarterback, setting records for passing yards and total touchdowns. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton’s 20 touchdown passes were only one fewer than Newton’s and he also led the Bengals to the playoffs. Need an idea of how special the seasons were for both players? It was the first time in NFL history that two rookie quarterbacks were named to the Pro Bowl.

Eli Casts Off Peyton’s Shadow – Eli Manning had already won a Super Bowl, but most still considered him a lesser quarterback behind his brother, Peyton. That will still hold true in the eyes of many, but by winning a second championship, he’s no longer simply known as ‘Peyton’s little brother.’ Eli not only has two titles but is young enough that another one isn’t out of the question.

With Super Bowl week here, prep yourself for nonsensical questions from non-sports media regarding players’ favorite foods, that oh-so-important boxers or briefs inquiry, or even faux marriage proposals. Every media member in the world will seemingly be there and mindless drivel will be front and center. And don’t even get me started on the takeover of sports talk shows this week by former players pitching every promotion and gadget under the sun.

Still, this is the biggest game of the year and there are lots of key storylines to watch. Here are my top five (with an honorable mention to the injury to Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski):

Eli Vs. Peyton – Ask anyone about the siblings and the consensus is generally that Peyton Manning is the better quarterback. But with each having one Lombardi trophy under their belts, Eli could gain some more consideration for the title of best in the family. Personally, I’d still lean towards Peyton since I considered him the best quarterback in the league in many seasons over his career. I’m not sure you can say that about Eli. But either way, both are extremely talented and if Eli surpasses his brother in championships, the school of thought that he’s the better signal caller will grow.

If Eli Manning can get his second Super Bowl win, the discussion around himself and Peyton will tighten up.

Ascent of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick – Already considered one of the elite coaches in pro football, Belichick can reach another level with a win over the Giants on Sunday. With three Super Bowl titles already, a fourth would tie him with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Chuck Noll for the most all time.

In that same vein, Tom Brady’s three championships as the Patriots’ quarterback leave him one behind Joe Montana. Even though both are behind Terry Bradshaw when it comes to quarterbacks winning Super Bowls, the Brady > Montana talk will increase if Brady is able to tie him.

Revenge, Revenge, Revenge – Another story you’re sure to hear about this week is the fact that the Patriots will be seeking to avenge their 2008 loss to the G-Men. Please. That game was four years ago and while some of the same players are still around, both rosters have seen plenty of changes since then. Key players from those 2008 squads that won’t be suiting up this time around include Randy Moss, Michael Strahan, Plaxico Burress, Asante Samuel, Tedy Bruschi, Donte Stallworth, Amani Toomer, and Jeremy Shockey among others. These are largely two different teams made up of new players.

Madonna at Halftime – Chances that Madonna will do something wildly controversial during the halftime show? Slim to none. Madonna’s act has been severely toned down since her 80s and 90s days and with the Janet Jackson/Justin Timberlake fiasco still fresh in the minds of the fans, you can bet the NFL is doing its best to ensure a family-friendly act. But her performance will nonetheless get people to stay tuned in on Sunday.

The ‘Underdog’ Giants vs. the Big Bad Patriots – This theme will undoubtedly be beaten like a drum this week despite the fact that it’s simply not true. The Giants won two road games against the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. While they had a bit of, let’s say, help, in that game against the Niners, beating two of the league’s best teams on the road means they’re not lucky – they’re good. Behind Eli Manning, New York boasts the fifth best passing offense in the league and with more than 2,700 receiving yards from Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks alone, the Giants have the ability to put points on the board. New York has won six of their past seven games and is just now hitting their stride.

Last week, we looked at the NBA’s Eastern Conference All-Stars and this time, it’s the West’s turn. Balloting has just gotten underway and fans are now casting their votes (by the way, you can cast yours at www.nba.com). Here are my picks for the top 12 players in the West.

LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge is coming into his own and turning into one of the best big men in the West. His 23 points and nearly nine rebounds are both career highs and could turn the Blazers into a playoff team this season.

Kobe Bryant – Bryant is turning in another spectacular season in 2011-12 – go figure. Without Lamar Odom, the Lakers haven’t been as dominant as they were last season, but Kobe’s play is the biggest reason the team could again win the Pacific Division. Think Kobe’s past his prime? He’s leading the league with just over 30 points per game, and with offensive talent around him such as Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, that’s flat out amazing.

Andrew Bynum – With Gasol starting to show signs of slowing down, Bynum is taking a lead role in L.A. He’s arguably the best center in the West and while he averages about 16 points per contest, it’s his 13.6 rebounds per game that should land him a spot in the All-star contest.

Kevin Durant – Durant has led Oklahoma City to a Western Conference best 13 wins so far this season. With the emergence of Russell Westbrook and James Harden, he’s taking a few less shots than he has over the past three seasons … but he’s also making more of them and is turning into a perennial Most Valuable Player award candidate.

Monta Ellis – Ellis is averaging 23 points a game, but he’s been jacking up more than 20 shots to do so. Still, it’s hard to not find room for the West’s fifth leading scorer and the fact that he’s also dishing out seven assists a game (good for ninth in the conference) helps him to land a spot.

Blake Griffin – While the addition of Chris Paul to the Clippers was the move that got everyone’s attention, without Griffin, Los Angeles isn’t nearly the threat to win the West that they are now. He took the league by storm last year averaging 22 points and 12 rebounds and he’s posting similar numbers this season.

Blake Griffin has already given us memorable moments like this in past All-Star games.

Al Jefferson – With the stats that he’s accumulated over the past few years, it’s a little hard to figure out why teams haven’t found a way to hold onto Jefferson. He’s one of the top power forwards in the game and with the Jazz, is playing for his third team in only eight seasons. Jefferson’s having another big season bringing in about 19 points and nine rebounds each game.

David Lee – Two Golden State Warriors on an All-Star team? Yeah, I’ll admit it sounds a bit excessive for a team battling to stay out of the conference’s basement. But Ellis’ selection is justified and I think Lee’s is, too. His 18.6 points per game are ninth in the West and his 10.6 rebounds are fourth.

Kevin Love – Simply put, Kevin Love is likely the NBA’s best power forward. He’s in the top five in scoring (24.1 points) and rebounding (14.1) per game in the entire league and gives us a reason to follow the woeful Timberwolves. The downside to Love this season is his paltry 41% shooting percentage, which is far below average for a big man. But with a career average over 45%, look for him to get better as the young season goes along.

Steve Nash – At 37, Nash’s career is clearly winding down. Still it’s hard not to take notice of the incredible job he’s doing on a depleted Phoenix Suns team. Playing on a squad devoid of a real scorer, Nash has led the team in that capacity with 15 points a game shooting an obscene career-high 55% from the field. But it’s also his NBA-leading ten assists a game on such an offensively-challenged team that makes him too impressive to pass up.

Chris Paul – Paul has taken L.A. by storm and has the Clippers on top of the Pacific Division. His 8.4 assists per game are the fewest he’s had since 2006-07, but Paul has been shooting lights out from the field. His 52% shooting percentage and 45% from three-point range are both career highs. Playing alongside Blake Griffin, Chauncey Billups, and Caron Butler have led to better shot opportunities and Paul is taking advantage of them.

Russell Westbrook – Westbrook has taken a lot of criticism for his shoot-first attitude in Oklahoma City particularly because the team has an offensive weapon such as Kevin Durant. But if Westbrook doesn’t score, the Thunder probably aren’t the first-place team in the West as they are right now. I’d like to see him dish out a few more assists (Westbrook is averaging almost three fewer than he did last season), but he’s a surprisingly good rebounder and is making a career-best 45% of his shot attempts.

To view Part I in this series, click here.